CGD Podcast: The Future of the African Development Bank with Three Presidential Candidates

Karen Mathiasen: Hello, everybody. This is Karen Mathiasen at CGD. I'm a project director here, and joining me is Daouda Sembene. He's the founder and the CEO of AfriCatalyst, which is this Global Development Advisory based in Dakar, Senegal. He's also a distinguished nonresident fellow here at CGD. He and his team at AfriCatalyst have been terrific partners for us, and we collaborate in a lot of areas, including today's podcast, during which we are going to hear from three candidates who are vying to be the next president of the African Development Bank.

Daouda has conducted the interviews with them. Let me welcome him formally and ask, can you start maybe by sharing a little bit of information about the presidential selection process at the African Development Bank?

Daouda Sembene: Thank you very much, Karen. It's a pleasure to be conducting this podcast with you. At AfriCatalyst, we've been very privileged to partner with the Center for Global Development, not only as part of this podcast interview, but also with many other events. The African Development Bank has five candidates campaigning to be the next president, succeeding Akinwumi Adesina, who is stepping down later this year. The terms of the AfDB president are for five years, and there is a two-term limit. This is the end of President Adesina's second term.

The AfDB has announced its final list of five candidates earlier in February, and these candidates are: Mr. Amadou Hott from Senegal, Dr. Samuel Maimbo from Zambia, Mr. Ould Tah from Mauritania, Mr. Abbas Tolli from Chad, and Ms. Swazi Tshabalala from South Africa. The candidate are actively campaigning now. The bank will hold its election during the next annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the bank, scheduled to take place in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, from 26th to 30th of May, 2025. In a little over a month, we will know who will be the next president of the African Development Bank.

Karen Mathiasen: Thank you so much, Daouda. Let me tell our listeners a little bit about the three candidates that we were able to interview. They're all outstanding. They all have extensive MDB experience and very impressive resumes. I do not have time to do their resumes justice, but I'm going to highlight just a few of their major accomplishments going alphabetically. 

Starting with Mr. Amadou Hott, he is Senegal's nominee, and he spent many years with the African Development Bank. Most recently, he was a special envoy of the president for the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa. Specifically, that meant that he was working to try to mobilize private financing for green infrastructure projects. Before that, from 2019 to 2020, Mr. Hott was Senegal's Minister of Economy, Planning, and Cooperation, and he played a key role during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previously to that, he was the vice president of the African Development Bank's Power, Energy, Green Growth and Climate Change Complex. He also has held various investment banking and investment advisory positions in New York, London, Dubai and Laos.

Let me turn now to Dr. Samuel Maimbo, the candidate from Zambia. He has spent 23 years at the World Bank, most recently as vice president for Budget, Performance Review, and Strategic Planning, where he oversaw the budget portfolio of $5 billion. Dr. Maimbo has been chief of staff to several World Bank presidents. That's a key role in advancing the institution's mission and strategy at the very highest levels. He also worked as the director of Resource Mobilization for the International Development Association, commonly known as IDA. This is the arm of the World Bank that supports the poorest countries, and he helps steward the off-cycle replenishment of IDA 20, which was completed a year early in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Prior to that, he was a bank inspector at the Bank of Zambia and an auditor with PricewaterhouseCooper. 

Then last but not least, we have Swazi Tshabalala from South Africa, and she has also been with the African Development Bank. She joined in 2018 as vice president and Chief Financial Officer. She was promoted to the role of senior vice president in 2021 until January 2024. Before this, she has had a lot of executive positions across Africa. This includes CEO of the Industrial Development Group, during which she spearheaded large scale energy and infrastructure investments. Before that, she served as treasurer and held other senior finance roles at Standard Bank, and she led a major financial restructuring, including a $1 billion pension deficit resolution.

Daouda Sembene: During this podcast, we'll hear the three candidates make their case to be president of the African Development Bank. We ask each candidate the same five questions. The podcast is organized around these questions, not around the candidates. This will make it easier to compare their answers. Let's begin with the first question. What would be your top priorities as president of the African Development Bank? Here are Mr. Maimbo's top priorities.

Samuel Munzele Maimbo: My number one priority is to make sure that the continent is growing at pace and scale. That's the only way in which we deal with the outstanding debt issues we have, we deal with rising inequality and make sure that we have jobs for the young people coming into the market. My second priority is to make sure that governments have the support they need to navigate an uncertain world with global challenges that they have to deal with in order to finance the development they want.

Thirdly, to make sure that the African Development Bank is managed as a top tier institution, providing services and support to our governments who are seeking to grow our continent as fast as we can. Those would be my three priorities. This is what I've heard on the campaign trail, and I look forward to working at the African Development Bank in pursuit of them.

Karen Mathiasen: Here are Ms. Tshabalala's top priorities.

Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala: My priorities are really around addressing the persistent infrastructure gap of the continent, because I don't believe that the sustainable development of the continent is possible without that focus attention to investing in transformational regional infrastructure in the continent so that we can catalyze sustainable growth. That's the first priority. My second priority is on private sector, and really, it's on supporting the private sector by creating an environment for them to be able to grow their businesses.

My third priority is actually on a stronger bank, a better bank. It is crucial for the bank to be focused on execution because I think the continent cannot wait for the kinds of internal challenges that we sometimes have.

Daouda Sembene: Here are Mr. Hott's top priorities.

Amadou Hott: Before sharing my vision for the bank, let me quickly share with you my overall vision for Africa. I envision a more integrated and self-reliant Africa, which is reaching its full potential. I want an Africa that is climate resilient, where prosperity is shared by all its citizens. I would like an Africa where high-quality education is available to all youth, and in particular, young girls. Growing up in the poor suburbs of Dakar, my access to education was not easy. Like many others, I was keen to build skills.

I received a scholarship, went to France to study with the goal to come back to Senegal to become a teacher because I wanted people to have the right skills. In the most extraordinary of events, I met an investment banker when I was introduced to how finance and banking skills can be leveraged to have impact. For me, education therefore is absolutely critical, because it relates to me. I want an Africa also that is engaging on equal terms with the rest of the world and attracting strategic investment.

In Africa, that is pride of its developmental achievements and that also contributing positively to the rest of the world. To achieve this vision, I will end to deploy a set of key enablers that will define my vision for the bank. I want to modernize the bank for speed, for scale, for bigger impact. To do that, you need to strengthen the bank's operational capabilities to mobilize financing at scale, especially in this current environment. I want to enhance the internal processes of the bank through digitalization, through retaining the talent that we have.

I worked with some of the most incredible people when I was at the bank as vice president, and I want to make sure that they are promoted when they need to be promoted, I want to make sure that they're incentivized, and I want to also attract additional talent to the bank. Also, internal processes, we have to review them again to make sure that we are preparing, developing, implementing large-scale transactions. Second, I would like to ensure that we strengthen the bank financial capacity, because if you want to mobilize more resources, you need to be financially sound.

We got to make sure that we maintain a top-tier credit rating at the bank, reinforce our risk controls, and mobilize innovative resources through project preparation, project development, co-financing so that we can use other people's money. I'd like also to leverage the SDRs to make sure that we are using them as hybrid capital from our partners, but also from some African countries that are in a very good position.

I like also to reform the ADF or to continue the reforms on the ADF to make the African Development Fund to make sure that it is going to the market, leveraging its equity, and raise additional resources from the capital market for the 37th poorest countries on the continent so that they don't go themselves to the capital market and pay very high rates. Again, third, I want to revolutionize the private sector operations and activities of the bank. The 10-year strategy set the goal of tripling our investments in private sector to $7.5 billion by 2035.

I think we can achieve this, and I think we can do even more if we establish a dedicated vice presidency to leverage the talent that we have so that we can engage, in the best terms possible, the private sector. At the same time, also expanded the project development and preparation services to ensure we have a portfolio of projects. People talk about the control. Billion to trillions, it will never happen, but that should be a top priority basically for my presidency. I want to make sure that it is strengthening its leadership role as the global voice for resource mobilization for Africa.

The bank has done a lot in that area. I will continue on that path and even do more, being the bridge between the public and the private sector because the growth model fueled by debt will not be sustainable. We got to bring in the private sector at scale, and the bank can play the convening power, basically, the trusted advisor, the bridge to make those things happen. Then lastly is to strengthen strategic partnerships. There is the partnership with the World Bank Rockefeller Foundation, for example, launching the M300.

That will be a top priority of my presidency because without access to electricity, access to clean cooking, access to energy for industrialization, we will not make it. That is extremely important.

Daouda Sembene: Let's now ask the second question. If elected, you will be running the AfDB during a time of extreme political and economic volatility, including high debt burdens for many AfDB borrowers. What role do you see for the AfDB in that context?

Karen Mathiasen: Here's Mr. Hott on today's economic challenges.

Amadou Hott: I want to make sure, as president of the bank, that the bank is positioning itself to support more African countries to be more self-reliant. Means, of course, if I translate relying more on ourselves on Africa's resources. We got to make sure also that the bank itself is leveraging more every single dollar, or euro, or yen, whatever that it is receiving, it is basically leveraging it to the fullest to attract additional capital, especially from the private sector, both African private sector and international private sector, but also to enhance the value for money.

That is critical. I want to make sure that our own resources, we are increasing our own capacity to intervene. We increasing our leveraging capacity basically to attract private sector, but also to attract other partners' resources and work with African government to support that to mobilize Africa's resources, or on the public side, and on the private side. On the public side, this is what everybody talks about, domestic resource mobilization. I'm not going to spend too much time because we all know what needs to be done to make sure our tax to GDP maybe goes from 15% on average to 20%.

If you do that, it's $200 billion on the table annually. Imagine what can you do with $200 billion of additional revenue every year? The leverage factor of that, how does it affect our credit rating. Our ability even to raise money and reduce the risk premium and all of that, so that's very critical. The other side, Africa also has private sector money. The wealth report shows that Africa's private sector need actually to basically-- and actually has $2.5 trillion of wealth. These are the high-net-worth individuals of Africa. $2.5 trillion investible resources.

What role the bank can play to be the convener, to be the trusted partner, the trusted advisor, and bring in all other partners, bilateral, multilateral, provide guarantees, and structure basically financial instruments, investment vehicles, so that we can mobilize basically that African resource. The bank can play a key role in that, and I want to push for that to happen. Maybe I'll add one more point there. Is because of this environment and the need to leverage our resources and Africa's resources, we need to develop and prepare bankable projects both on the public side and on the private side, and especially on the private side.

We can talk as much as we want on mobilizing African resources. If you don't have the projects ready, then it will be difficult to mobilize those resources.

Daouda Sembene: Here is Mr. Maimbo on today's economic challenges.

Samuel Munzele Maimbo: In this context, it's absolutely essential that we double down on the assets of the African Development Bank. That's our voice, our finances, and our staff. Our voice is important, because in the multipolar world that we are in, it is absolutely essential. We have an institution that devotes its time to explaining, to debating, to advocating Africa's position on all of these challenges that we face, be it debt, be it climate, be agriculture, everything.

It's important that we double down on a chief economist that works with the president, works with a research agenda that is strong, that is robust, and that is not shy about having an honest conversation about what the data is telling us. The second is financing. It's absolutely essential we recognize that the financing that we need for Africa to grow is significantly higher than anything that we have at the moment. This need comes at a time when we can see that development aid has been declining and is stopping in some countries, private sector financing is asking for a premium from Africa.

Therefore, as we focus on making sure we've got the finances we need, we absolutely invest in increasing our own domestic resource mobilization efforts. We are realistic and candid about the circumstances in which we find ourselves, and importantly, for an institution like the African Development Bank, we not only stretch our balance sheet, but we are not shy about partnering with others. I'm pleased that the World Bank was successful in its either replenishment of $100 billion. I want to get as much of that money working in Africa as possible.

I will take the same approach with all multilateral institutions so that we work as one system on this continent. Thirdly, it's our staff. The African Development Bank has phenomenal staff. We must unleash their full potential. We must make sure that we are taking advantage of the decentralized nature of the bank so that our staff who are closest with our clients develop the confidence they need of our governments, of our partners, so that they lead us in making sure we are making the best decisions we can.

I am a firm believer in delegation, absolute delegation, so that the staff who are closest to the communities are making nimble decisions and helping us navigate a very challenging environment. One that is not new, we've been here before. I certainly have in my 30 years at the World Bank. We've had wars before. We've had changes of administration. It takes patience, it takes focus on data, and it takes time to build consensus with the communities that we work with, but it all boils down to one thing, trust. Trust in the data, trust in the institution, and trust in the staff that we work with.

Karen Mathiasen: Here is Ms. Tshabalala on today's economic challenges.

Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala: The challenges is real. There are a lot of countries facing this debt problem. I think as long as we don't have agency over our own future as a continent, we are going to have these challenges from time to time. I think that efforts around trying to address the debt issues should certainly continue, but we must make sure that this time, whatever the outcome of these discussions on debt resolution are, we need to make sure that it doesn't happen again. We need to make sure that countries as much as possible have a better handle on public debt management.

This is very, very important, but also, I think there are certain things that we need to do. We need to develop domestic capital markets so that countries are not always limited to borrowing from foreign markets, because I think that creates unacceptable risks and risks that are very difficult to manage. If you think about what happened with the flood of liquidity that followed the pandemic, you can understand that even the best managed economies in Africa, they had very little capacity to control that and certainly could not control the effects of that.

This is very, very important to understand. Of course, countries need to think about domestic resource mobilization improving on that asset and liability matching in deciding what debt you go after. We need to make sure that this time those basics are in place.

Daouda Sembene: Let me ask the third question. This year, the AfDB will conclude the ADF-17 replenishment. Many key donors like the US and the UK are drastically cutting their foreign assistance budgets. How would you address this challenge?

Karen Mathiasen: Here is Ms. Tshabalala addressing recent cuts in foreign assistance.

Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala: The issue of reducing appetite for providing concessional resources for development in Africa has been visible and apparent for some time now. This is not a new thing, but I think it's important for non-regional countries to remain engaged. I really think that the opportunity to really emphasize on this around climate finance say it's very, very important that as Africa, we continue to hold onto our commitments with regards to climate change. Because even though Africa contributed very little to the situation we find ourselves in, the fact of the matter is that it's affecting us really badly.

I don't think that a global solution to climate change is possible without Africa's involvement. I think the way that non-regional countries should look at this is that it's an investment in the globe's future, and there's an opportunity for them to actually make a case in front of their taxpayers for continuing to increase the amount of resources. There's very little financing available for Africa, for climate, in particular. I think there's a very strong case to be made for Africa to receive more resources in this regard rather than the generalized concessional financing that has been the norm in the past few years.

I also think that there's a very strong case to be made for support for fragile countries, because a lot of those problems, if unmanaged and with no assistance, eventually become everyone's problem.

Daouda Sembene: Here is Mr. Hott addressing some cut in foreign assistance.

Amadou Hott: What I want to do is to work with our ADF deputies to make sure that first, that the cuts that are being made do not affect Africa, because these budgets are reduced, but it doesn't mean that it is reduced from the Africa support. How can we make sure that it is not reduced from the Africa support? This is number one. How can we work with some of the donors that still believe that they're able. They want and able to increase their-- with contribution to ADF will work with those target them, and work with them to make sure that their wish is realized.

Three, show everybody that with African Development Bank through the African Development Fund, you'll get the maximum leverage of your bucks, maximum leverage in terms of impact as well. For me, that's very critical. Also, what is very important is to ensure that as part of that ADF-17 replenishment, we are also increasing the capacity of a facility we have at the bank, which is the Private Sector Credit Enhancement Facility that enables the bank to take more risk in fragile and transition countries and riskier countries.

Because as we increase our private sector operations, you need to mitigate the additional risk you're taking, or you need to set capital on the side. I think it will be more interesting to try to increase that. Showing that we are increasing the bank of the portfolio of bankable projects. I would like also to finalize the ADF to market. The process has started. The bank has done a great job so far. Most countries have signed, if not all, the agreement. Many have ratified. Some need to ratify.

I want as my number one goal also on a ADF, is early in 2026 to make sure that we effectively get the ratification working with our governors and member countries and then go to market to raise the funds for those countries that will enable them to not go to the capital market themself where it's shut down for some of them, or where those who have access are paying very expensive rate. I think that is something we should swiftly work on and achieve it early in 2026.

Karen Mathiasen: Here's Mr. Maimbo addressing recent cuts in foreign assistance.

Samuel Munzele Maimbo: We successfully managed to raise funding for either '20, at a time when the world was in lockdown. We were in COVID. The very traditional donors that we were working with had citizens who were dying. It was a challenging environment in which to raise financing. The circumstances today are different in that it's more to do with a war rather than a pandemic. It's more to do with ideological changes across the world, but the strategy remains the same. In certain environment, you don't start talking about money first. You start talking about results.

What is this money going to be used for? You talk about outcomes. You demonstrate that this money will be put to good use and it is in the interest of everyone involved, donors and recipients, that this fundraising exercise is successful. Importantly, you build trust by demonstrating that your own systems and processes are absolutely efficient. That this is the most effective way to achieve the outcomes that you want. Importantly, as you pursue this agenda, it is absolutely paramount that you demonstrate that you have done everything you can to bring as much money to the table for every dollar you get.

For that reason, I will be spending a lot of time working with the resources we have on the continent. The pension funds. $250 billion worth of pension funds. Central banks. Trying to find ways in which we can issue secondary paper to invest in the ADF replenishment. I would also challenge our own private sector on the continent. 250 firms who have an annual revenue of a billion dollars. We must tap into private capital as much as we can. I need to demonstrate when I go back to our traditional and non-traditional donors, that as an institution, as a continent, we've done our fair bit on putting money on the table.

This is what it'll take. Importantly, when you wrap up everything together, we must start more aggressively moving away from an aid and death cycle to one of growth and prosperity. The replenishment of the African Development Fund must demonstrate that every dollar will go towards this new paradigm that is a more self-resilient Africa in future.

Daouda Sembene: Let me now ask the fourth question. The impact of climate change is significantly increasing the continent's economic vulnerability, making development goals harder to achieve. What role does the AfDB have in managing this crisis? Here is Mr. Maimbo on the AfDB and climate change.

Samuel Munzele Maimbo: Look, I grew up on a farm and it was a traditional farm, rain-based agriculture. My parents still live on the same farm. My brother is in agriculture. For me, climate change and its impact, particularly on agriculture, is a personal issue. It is absolutely paramount that when we think about development going forward, climate change is at the center of the agenda for the African Development Bank. Now, some might have the luxury of debating what terminology we use in this particular space.

What I'm interested in is three things, and I would actually start at the very end. The reason you and I are able to drive our cars is because we have motor insurance. We know that if we have an accident, we can get a new car. We must strengthen the resilience of our insurance systems across the continent, both private and public to make sure that when we are hit with catastrophic change, we're not going back 10 years and losing decades of development that communities are able to rebound quickly and build back better.

Public insurance, private insurance, sovereign insurance, that's a priority for the African Development Bank. There are institutions on the continent, including the African Union who are involved in this space I will partner with them from day one. The second is the idea of building back better, more resilient systems, and that's climate smart agricultural practices, infrastructure. We must be mindful and respectful that when we talk about renewable energy, we are still talking to communities where we have 600 million people who do not have basic energy.

For some of them, it is a luxury, but at the same time, it's not a luxury that means that we must be pursuing these goals without any regards to the climate. Therefore, there is a means in which this can be done responsibly. The third element is to make sure that the African Development Bank, and indeed all of our partners aren't thinking about climate as an issue of charity. This could be and is in many communities a viable business that generates revenue, that strengthens communities, creates jobs across all of the different sectors.

That's the attitude that I will take, because we do not have the time, we do not have the luxury of debating the fancy sounding climate terms without actually delivering for our people jobs, power, electricity, and most importantly, the safety nets that they deserve when these climate shocks take place. The magnitude and frequency is going to increase with time. Let's get on with the job of protecting these communities.

Karen Mathiasen: Here is Ms. Tshabalala on the AfDB and climate change.

Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala: If you look at my first pillar on investment in infrastructure, what we are talking about here is investment in climate resilient infrastructure in renewable energy, balanced, of course, with the need for energy security, but I think that responsibility towards ensuring that we start to proactively address some of the issues that we already see in certain regions. If you look at what's happening in the Sahel, if you look at what's happening in Southeastern Africa, in Mozambique with the almost annual typhoons now, something certainly that didn't happen when I was growing up.

Climate change is real, and we observe it and we see it. I think climate mitigation is an easier sell because it's very obvious, you know what the outcomes are. Climate adaptation is a much harder sell, and I think there's a lot more work to be done in actually selling that story. I think the way you need to look at the returns from investing in climate adaptation is really about the resilience of the African continent, which can then lead to its sustainable development with a huge potential market in the context of the Africa Continental free trade area and that market is consists of potential customers of the future.

Daouda Sembene: Here is Mr. Hott on the AfDB and climate change.

Amadou Hott: Managing climate change crisis and its impact on Africa is extremely critical. Its impact on Africa, but also basically making sure that we are not opposing climate and development. It's very important to make sure that climate change adaptation is primarily financed through grant resources and concessional resources. For me, that is critical because the resources are scarce, and for our development, we need more resources as well. The bank has done very well as I believe that the bank's share of climate investment or of the bank portfolio is one of the highest among all MDBs. It has been the case for a long time.

The share of adaptation out of the bank climate finance investment is also one of the highest, if not the highest, among all MDBs as well. I believe that the bank has already the skill, the capabilities, the reputation to really move into that path, taking into account the absolute need for Africa to have also access to abundant energy for its development, whether for clean cooking, whether for industrialization, ideally green industrialization, and access to electricity as well. Those are really extremely important, and making sure that we are navigating this in the most efficient and impactful way possible is extremely important.

Daouda Sembene: Finally, let me ask the last question, which is a question that at CGD we ask to any guest on our podcast. If you could wave a magic wand and instantly change any one policy, what change do you think would do the most good? Here is Mr. Hott's policy wish.

Amadou Hott: If I were able to make one change happen because of magics, I will focus on drastically attracting private sector investment in Africa for massive job creation, especially for the youth.

Karen Mathiasen: Here is Ms. Tshabalala's policy wish.

Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala: I would really wave that wand so that we focus as a continent on closing the infrastructure gaps because they are what's holding us back. If I could wave the wand, mobilize the $100-$170 billion required every year and execute on the implementation of that infrastructure gap, that would be my first one because I think it addresses a lot of things. It addresses the low growth, it addresses the lack of inclusivity in growth, and also, it addresses the debt issues that we talked about earlier on.

Daouda Sembene: Here is Mr. Maimbo's policy wish.

Samuel Munzele Maimbo: If I were to wave a magic wand across the continent, I would say the most significant impact would be simply policy consistency. Far too often with every change in government, with every change in administration, with every change in donor partner, we are constantly rebuilding the foundations of education, of health, of agriculture. The temptation to do so is understandable because we are all seeking the best solution, but the reality is the governments that choose one policy and stick with it for as long as they possibly can.

Assuming, of course, it's a reasonable policy, is one that the private sector can work with, they can accommodate the risk, they can absorb them. This is what has failed our agricultural policies on the continent. This is what has failed our desire to build infrastructure that connects and brings down our borders. Policy consistency is key. Importantly, I would stretch that to not just within sovereigns, but across sovereigns. We must learn to trade with each other better. We must be able to understand that the US developed because you can drive a truck from California to Washington without a border post.

You can do the same from Paris to Vienna, and do the same. We need to get to a point where you can drive a truck from Cape to Cairo, from Nairobi to Dakar, with consistent policies across the continent. That's the only way we significantly accelerate the pace of growth on our continent.

Karen Mathiasen: This concludes our interview. I want to thank the candidates for taking the time to participate in this podcast and share their thoughts. I think the AfDB would be in excellent hands with any of them at the helm.

Daouda Sembene: Let me also thank the candidates for joining us today. We were very much inspired by their insights. We look forward to the elections next month, and we wish all the candidates best of luck.