This post was solicited as a brief contribution to a debate on the question, “Is Global Warming Real?” Read the full debate at wallethub.com.
Is global warming real? You bet it is. And even if you haven’t yet felt its impacts, some of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people are already bearing the brunt of climate instability.
First, there’s the science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—the Nobel-prize-winning body, set up by the United Nations to assess the science of climate change—is known for being conservative. So, it’s significant that the IPCC’s 2014 report deemed the evidence of climate change to be “unequivocal,” pointing to warming of the atmosphere and oceans, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level.
Just as the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius predicted 120 years ago, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—caused by burning fossil fuels and clearing forests—are warming the planet through the greenhouse effect. According to NASA, 2015 was the hottest year “since modern record-keeping began,” and 15 of the 16 warmest years have occurred since 2001.
But, if you’re skeptical of the science, there’s always first-hand experience. I’m a backyard gardener, and I’ve noticed that on average, the last frosts in the spring are coming earlier, a phenomenon occurring in most of the United States. Last year, my husband took a picture of me playing in the waves of the coast of North Carolina on December 27th, when the temperature topped 80 degrees Fahrenheit. I discovered there was a whole stream of photos depicting such unseasonable events on Twitter with the hashtag, #ClimateChangeChristmas.
My experiences with global warming are trivial, but many people have not been so lucky. Here in the United States, many fellow citizens have experienced extreme weather events in recent years, whether Hurricane Sandy in 2012, or the extended California drought. While scientists are careful not to attribute any particular weather event to climate change, it’s clear that warmer temperatures make such “natural” disasters more severe.
Even more important are the experiences of millions of people in developing countries who are already suffering the impacts of a changing climate, through exposure to acute events such as Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, or more chronic problems, such as longer fire seasons in the Brazilian Amazon. Poor households are particularly vulnerable to climate instability. Living in rickety housing, their safety is threatened by storms. With crops dependent on rainfall, their livelihoods are threatened by drought. And lacking insurance and mobility, they are ill-positioned to recover after disaster strikes.
As detailed in my new book, Why Forests? Why Now?, with co-author Jonah Busch, conserving tropical forests is one of the best ways to keep the planet cool, by reducing emissions from deforestation, and harnessing standing forests as a safe and natural carbon capture and storage technology. Forests also generate ecosystem services that are especially important for poor households, including resilience to the fires, floods, and landslides associated with climate change itself.
The first step is to accept that global warming is real; the second is to do something about it. Protecting forests is a critical part of the solution.
CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise.
CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.
