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Finally!! After years of debating changes to rules of origin to make it easier for developing countries, especially the least-developed among them, to export duty-free under preference programs, the European Union is finally set to act at the end of this month. While the particular method chosen is not what the CGD working group on Global Trade Preference Reform recommended, it should make a meaningful difference for many LDCs whose exports have been blocked by the restrictive rules currently in place. Now, if only the Obama administration and Congress could find the courage to also act on this critical development policy issue.
CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.
"Without immigration, the EU and UK could find their economies crippled by worker shortages within the next thirty years. A shift in attitudes to immigrants, as politically and socially difficult as it might be, will be necessary to head off economic disaster.
The European Union and the UK will be short tens of millions of workers by 2050 due to an aging population and insufficient levels of migration, according to a new study from the Center for Global Development.
There will be 95 million fewer working-age people in Europe in 2050 than in 2015, under business as usual. The paper compares business as usual estimates of inflows to 2050 with the size of the labor gap in Europe. Under plausible estimates, business as usual will fill one-third of the labor gap. This suggests a need for an urgent shift if Europe is to avoid an aging crisis. Africa is the obvious source of immigrants, to mutual benefit.