It’s been three weeks since the UK voted to leave the European Union in the move popularly known as Brexit, and the consequences are still becoming apparent. The pound dropped sharply, markets went on a roller coaster ride, while one forecast estimates a contraction in the UK economy of 4.5% by 2019.
Things are so uncertain that it’s hard to make any predictions, so we won’t. Instead, senior fellow and director of CGD Europe Owen Barder joins the podcast from London this week to take a balanced look at possibilities for the UK’s future, and consider implications for the country and the developing world.
“It seems to me inevitable that leaving the EU will cause people to questions Britain’s commitment to working in partnership with other countries, whether as a nation we’re willing and able to cooperate,” Barder tells me. “The long term depends on… what we do next.
“We could turn inwards. We could get rid of our aid budget, and walk away from our climate change commitments, and put up trade barriers and protect our industries. Or we could redouble our efforts to be global citizens, and to engage effectively and cooperate with the broader multilateral system, to contribute our part of making the world a more prosperous and peaceful place.
“I think there will be some incentive on the British government to do the second of those.”
You can read more in Barder’s recent blog post, Brexit: Threats and Opportunities for Global Development.
CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.