Round Eight of the MCA: Which Countries Will the MCC Board Likely Select as Eligible in FY2011

The Millennium Challenge Corporation is about to conduct its eighth round of country eligibility selection. These decisions will take place amid recent changes in the U.S. global development and MCC landscape. The Obama administration released a new global development policy built around many central tenets of the MCC, including selectivity, country ownership, and a focus on economic growth as the way to reduce poverty. For the first time in its history, some MCC compacts have come to their five-year completion, prompting renewed emphasis on innovation and results. Second compacts will comprise a significant portion of the MCC compact pipeline. The MCC has revamped its threshold program and is seeking legislative changes for longer and concurrent compacts and new income category definitions.

This analysis draws upon two recent congressionally mandated reports and country indicator performance to predict which countries the MCC board will select as eligible to apply for FY2011 compact or threshold assistance.