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Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF; Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Carmen Reinhart, Professor, Harvard Kennedy School Pablo Guidotti, Dean and Professor, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Former Vice-Minister of Finance, Argentina Ernesto Talvi, Director, CERES; Former Chief Economist, Central Bank of Uruguay Guillermo Perry, Non-resident fellow, Center for Global Development; Professor, Universidad de los Andes; Former Minister of Finance, Colombia Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Alberto Carrasquilla, Partner, Konfigura Capital LTDA; former Minister of Finance, Colombia Laura Alfaro, Professor, Harvard Business School; former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Costa Rica Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil
A slowdown in China’s growth is a serious concern for Latin America, especially for those countries that have benefited from a record-setting boom in commodity prices since 2003. Much of the slowdown is due to structural reforms in China, partly prompted by the tepid and uncertain recovery of its large trade partners, namely, the US and EU.
Lurking in the background, however, is growing concern about possible macroeconomic instability due to China’s domestic credit boom, which has been accompanied by the emergence of unregulated and fast growing “shadow banks.” A disruption of the banking system cannot be ruled out and could result in a major growth contraction in China.
How big is this risk? And what are the implications for Latin America? What are the advantages of China’s financial expansion in the region, and how can policymakers make the most of these, while minimizing the risks?
The upcoming meeting of the Latin America Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, CLAAF, will explore these questions by addressing the following topics:
• Should Latin American policymakers be delighted or concerned about the increasing presence of Chinese banks in the region?
• What are the financial channels of contagion from China to Latin America? If there is a Chinese credit crunch, will the US—Latin America’s other major market—become entangled?
• Are there lessons for China from Latin America regarding the sequencing of financial liberalization and the resolution of financial troubles?
Indian agriculture remains vulnerable to the vagaries of weather, and the looming threat of climate change may expose this vulnerability further. Using district-level data on temperature, rainfall and crop production, Siddharth Hari’s paper first documents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, declining average precipitation and increase in extreme precipitation events. One key finding is that the impact of temperature and rainfall are felt only in the extreme: when temperatures are much higher, rainfall is significantly lower, and the number of “dry days” greater is than normal. He also finds that these impacts are significantly more adverse in unirrigated areas (and hence rainfed crops) compared to irrigated areas. Can policy makers react to the challenges of climate change and find ways to get “more crop for every drop?"
Estimating intergenerational mobility in developing countries is difficult because matched parent-child income records are rarely available and education is measured very coarsely. In particular, there are no established methods for comparing educational mobility for subsamples of the population when the education distribution is changing over time.
In their recent paper, Sam Asher and coauthors present new methods and new administrative data to overcome this gap, and study intergenerational mobility across groups and across space in India. They find that the intergenerational mobility for the population as a whole has remained constant since liberalization, but cross-group changes have been substantial. Rising mobility among historically marginalized "Scheduled Castes" is almost exactly offset by declining intergenerational mobility among Muslims, a comparably sized group that has few constitutional protections. These findings contest the conventional wisdom that marginalized groups in India have been catching up on average. The paper also explores heterogeneity across space, generating the first high-resolution geographic measures of intergenerational mobility across India, with results across 5600 rural subdistricts and 2300 cities and towns.
AidEx is a two day event, which encompasses a conference, exhibition, meeting areas, awards and workshops. Its fundamental aim is to engage the sector at every level and provide a forum for aid & development professionals to meet, source, supply and learn. AidEx was created to help the international aid and development community engage the private sector in a neutral setting, drive innovation and support the ever-growing need for emergency aid and development programmes.