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Featuring the members of the Latin-American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF): Guillermo Calvo, Professor, Columbia University; former Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Pedro Carvalho de Mello, Professor, Universidade de Sao Paulo; former Commissioner, Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios, Brazil Roque Fernandez, Professor, Universidad del CEMA; former Minister of Finance, Argentina Carmen Reinhart, Professor, Harvard University Liliana Rojas-Suarez, President, CLAAF; Senior Fellow and Director, Latin America Initiative, Center for Global Development
Latin America has benefited in recent years from an unprecedented and prolonged episode of extremely low interest rates in the US and other high-income economies. Most Wall Street analysts and multilateral bank economists agree that, led by the US, this episode is coming to an end with return of what was once regarded as a normal global macro environment: higher interest rates in advanced economies and lower commodity prices.
How will Latin America weather the return to normal? There is no consensus. Some experts argue that improvement in macroeconomic policies (especially greater exchange rate flexibility) will pay dividends and the region will continue on a solid, albeit lower and sometimes bumpy path of economic growth. Others warn that the return of normal will expose hidden fragilities that in some countries could result in serious economic instability.
CLAAF members will present their views on this debate and will answer the following questions, among others:
How should Latin America’s performance be assessed? Are the typical indicators of fiscal and monetary strength adequate or are we missing an important part of the story?
Can local-currency denominated financial instruments developed in the region during the period of prolonged low international interest rates be sustainable with the return of normal conditions?
How will a less favorable international economic climate and political pressures to sustain high growth rates (in a heavy electoral period in the region) interact to determine outcomes?
Indian agriculture remains vulnerable to the vagaries of weather, and the looming threat of climate change may expose this vulnerability further. Using district-level data on temperature, rainfall and crop production, Siddharth Hari’s paper first documents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, declining average precipitation and increase in extreme precipitation events. One key finding is that the impact of temperature and rainfall are felt only in the extreme: when temperatures are much higher, rainfall is significantly lower, and the number of “dry days” greater is than normal. He also finds that these impacts are significantly more adverse in unirrigated areas (and hence rainfed crops) compared to irrigated areas. Can policy makers react to the challenges of climate change and find ways to get “more crop for every drop?"
Estimating intergenerational mobility in developing countries is difficult because matched parent-child income records are rarely available and education is measured very coarsely. In particular, there are no established methods for comparing educational mobility for subsamples of the population when the education distribution is changing over time.
In their recent paper, Sam Asher and coauthors present new methods and new administrative data to overcome this gap, and study intergenerational mobility across groups and across space in India. They find that the intergenerational mobility for the population as a whole has remained constant since liberalization, but cross-group changes have been substantial. Rising mobility among historically marginalized "Scheduled Castes" is almost exactly offset by declining intergenerational mobility among Muslims, a comparably sized group that has few constitutional protections. These findings contest the conventional wisdom that marginalized groups in India have been catching up on average. The paper also explores heterogeneity across space, generating the first high-resolution geographic measures of intergenerational mobility across India, with results across 5600 rural subdistricts and 2300 cities and towns.
AidEx is a two day event, which encompasses a conference, exhibition, meeting areas, awards and workshops. Its fundamental aim is to engage the sector at every level and provide a forum for aid & development professionals to meet, source, supply and learn. AidEx was created to help the international aid and development community engage the private sector in a neutral setting, drive innovation and support the ever-growing need for emergency aid and development programmes.