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WORKING PAPERS
August 30, 2023
Higher levels of fiscal redistribution, through income taxes and direct transfers, increase the probability of achieving inclusive growth. To spur inclusive growth in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, countries with limited fiscal space will need to focus on improving efficiency and reallocate ex...
Blog Post
August 02, 2023
The future of such spending in countries currently experiencing or at high risk of debt distress is particularly troubling. A country is in debt distress when its ability to service domestic and external debt is impaired. This blog post delves into these issues based on more recent health spending a...
Blog Post
March 01, 2023
Last week I was just thinking about writing a blog about a new economics working paper, when I got access to the new Bing AI chatbot, trailed as yet another improvement on ChatGPT and with up to date internet access. It turns out Bing can write a very passable blog summary of a working paper recentl...
WORKING PAPERS
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
Blog Post
February 07, 2023
President Biden is scheduled to deliver his second State of the Union address tonight. Historically, these speeches have focused on domestic policy and leading national security issues, yielding limited airtime for international development. But, on occasion, past presidents of both parties have spo...
Blog Post
January 26, 2023
With the abandonment of its Zero COVID policy, the Chinese economy is expected to rebound and contribute substantively to global economic growth in the latter part of 2023. This is projected to add to world demand for oil, more than offsetting falling demand from advanced countries whose economies a...
WORKING PAPERS
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
Blog Post
December 19, 2022
About 63 percent of Nigeria’s population is multidimensionally poor, and Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio at the federal government level reached 83 percent during the first eight months of 2022. In short, the country is facing significant fiscal-macroeconomic challenges, with implications fo...
CGD NOTES
December 19, 2022
The next administration in Nigeria will face significant fiscal-macroeconomic challenges. This note focuses on adopting a more integrated and comprehensive framework for the conduct of fiscal policy, with emphasis on improving domestic resource mobilization, enhancing expenditure efficiency, and exp...