Public Spending and Inclusive Growth in Developing Asia

This paper discusses the determinants of inclusive growth in developing Asia, with a focus on government expenditures. We find that higher levels of fiscal redistribution (through income taxes and direct transfers) increase the probability of achieving inclusive growth, as well as the level of government spending on health and education. To spur inclusive growth in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, countries with limited fiscal space will need to focus on improving efficiency and reallocate existing outlays to activities that benefit low-income groups. Reallocating health spending toward primary care, and education spending toward primary and secondary education, would help lead to more equitable growth. There is also scope to better target social benefits to the poor.