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Blog Post
October 30, 2023
Our new paper forecasts global structural transformation over the next thirty years. It shouldn’t come as a great surprise that it suggests the planetary shift toward services employment and out of both agriculture and manufacturing will continue. But it does suggest something many find might novel ...
Blog Post
October 05, 2023
A year ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that an alarming 60 percent of developing countries and 25 percent of emerging market economies were either in debt distress or at severe risk of default. The confluence of severe shocks in the period 2020-22, starting with the COVID-19 pan...
WORKING PAPERS
October 05, 2023
This paper uses a straightforward Resilience Indicator, constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables, to show that by 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks, it was possible to identify emerging markets and developing countries that would encounter ...
WORKING PAPERS
September 22, 2023
Using new data from the European Banking Authority on loan recovery outcomes, we examine how variation in loan recovery efficiency affects the transmission of financial sector and overall economic weakness to firm-level financial and real outcomes. We find that firms linked to under-capitalized bank...
WORKING PAPERS
August 29, 2023
The war in Ukraine was associated with large changes in the prices of key food and fuel commodities in 2022 which produced macroeconomic gains for exporters and losses as import costs increased. Across 49 countries benefitting, these gains averaged about 8 percent of GDP and reach up to 36 percent o...
CGD NOTES
June 07, 2023
The Committee identifies three critical developments in the global economy with profound implications that require urgent changes at the IMF. This statement advances broad proposals to address these issues by creating an Emerging Markets Fund (EMF); modifying the G20 Common Framework to effectively ...
Blog Post
May 23, 2023
The past year has been challenging and turbulent for many frontier markets in Africa. In 2022, African economies met headwinds of inflation, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sovereign debt challenges. This led to a decrease in demand for African goods and services, as well as reduced inve...
Blog Post
May 22, 2023
The tide is turning: the economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region is picking up steam. Last week’s forecasts from the IMF suggest that economic growth in the region’s developing and emerging countries will rise from 4.4 percent in 2022 to 5.3 and 5.1 percent in the current and following year. Th...
Blog Post
April 17, 2023
To what extent are the high returns on capital of "star firms" due to unmeasured differences in intangible invested capital? Once these differences are corrected, how do star firms differ in their output and investment strategies from other firms? Our evidence points not to exploitation of market po...