BLOG POST

USAID Cuts: New Estimates at the Country Level

Last week, we published an estimate of cuts to USAID programs at the sectoral level based on two leaked documents covering cancelled and retained awards. Since then, a new version of the terminated and retained awards list was shared with Congress. Using that updated list, we revise our earlier sectoral estimates using the same approach as previously, and also estimate the scale of cuts to USAID country programs. All of this analysis comes with the same caveats as our last estimate (some repeated below).

The country analysis suggests a number of country programs may have been effectively closed down, particularly in Central and East Asia but also in West Africa, Central Europe, and the Americas. In absolute dollar value, by far the largest cut is to the Ukraine program, followed by Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

For the purposes of the country cuts map (below), we ignore aid that is not targeted to a specific country. In FY24–25, 20 percent of USAID awards by value listed their primary geographic destination as “World” or some other regional grouping, e.g., “Southern Africa Region” or “Latin America and Caribbean Region.”

The map shows three measures: absolute cuts and cuts as a share of a country’s baseline USAID programming. Notes are warranted in each case:

  1. Absolute cuts in dollars: As discussed in our earlier post, assigning a dollar value to a specific USAID award is not straightforward: do you care about how much has already been spent under that award? Or how much could theoretically be spent in the future? Here we measure the dollar value of USAID awards in terms of the amount obligated during FY24–25 as reported in foreignassistance.gov. Note not all cancelled awards match data in foreignassistance.gov, so this figure will be an underestimate of the true scale of cuts.
  2. Cuts as a percent of country program: Here we assume our new list of cancelled and retained awards combined is complete, and simply calculate the total of cancelled awards as a proportion of cancelled and retained values combined (both as measured by FY24/25 obligations). Note that because of the different approaches to calculating absolute and percentage cuts, these two numbers are not directly comparable. Note also this misses any support provided through regional and global grants.
  3. Cuts as a percentage of recipient GNI: This uses the absolute dollar cuts as above and divides them by recipient GNI in current US dollars. Note because of both regional and global spending and because of missing data from foreignassistance.gov this will be an underestimate of the scale of the cuts on this measure.

The largest absolute dollar cut at the country level is $1.4 billion in Ukraine assistance. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania all see cuts over $200 million. Liberia sees the largest cut as a percentage of its economy, estimated at 1.6 percent of GNI. Afghanistan, Palestine, and Somalia are all over 1 percentage point. In terms of the existing USAID program, our data suggest in some cases country cuts may be equal to 95 percent or more of the value of programs including the following countries where programs were previously above $100 million: Madagascar, Georgia, El Salvador, Senegal, Nepal, Indonesia, Liberia, and the Philippines.

The updated sectoral analysis suggests that the total cuts may have been in the region of 38 percent of contract values measured by FY24–25 obligations, as compared to our estimate of 34 percent last week. The sectoral results remain broadly similar, with the exception that disaster readiness cuts are reduced by about 20 percentage points (see the table and chart below).

Table 1. Sectoral cuts (in millions $)

SectorFY24–25 obligationsCutPreservedEstimated percent cut
Total44,31713,23721,31338
Agriculture1,4441,17326881
Basic Education1,085745799
Civil Society4643281100
Conflict Mitigation and Reconciliation392368599
Direct Administrative Costs4,3975873594
Disaster Readiness74526435043
Family Planning and Reproductive Health6034432894
Good Governance1,0549632997
Higher Education262159796
HIV/AIDS5,7441,0914,34220
Infrastructure1,4027932100
Macroeconomic Foundation for Growth10,4509657,33612
Malaria97825745836
Maternal and Child Health1,0178777992
Nutrition51613320639
Other13434196
Other Public Health Threats262925164
Pandemic Influenza and Other Emerging Threats (PIOET)82275314784
Policies, Regulations, and Systems1281041488
Political Competition and Consensus-Building216182996
Private Sector Competitiveness8287290100
Protection, Assistance and Solutions9,6851,1127,64513
Rule of Law and Human Rights5434277585
Trade and Investment2372013087
Tuberculosis39118013956
Water Supply and Sanitation5172764786

Table 2. Country cuts data

CountryCut as % country programCut as % GNIAbsolute cut ($m)
Ukraine150.781,433
Democratic Republic of the Congo340.6387
Ethiopia300.24387
Colombia820.09309
Uganda660.64307
South Africa890.07261
Palestine291.16240
Bangladesh560.05229
Kenya460.21225
Afghanistan361.29223
Tanzania380.28216
Nigeria230.05178
Mozambique470.9172
Egypt840.04170
Honduras940.52167
Moldova1000.97164
Haiti500.82164
El Salvador1000.47150
Mali660.76149
Jordan610.27136
Georgia1000.46130
Senegal1000.43129
Nepal1000.31128
Zambia590.48126
Malawi640.94116
Somalia221.03113
Yemen150112
India940111
Indonesia980.01108
Iraq930.04107
Philippines950.02104
Ghana790.14104
Liberia982.59103
Rwanda650.74102
Guatemala520.0990
Pakistan850.0283
Zimbabwe350.2483
Sudan80.0774
Lebanon29066
Kosovo1000.6165
Vietnam650.0264
Madagascar540.462
Armenia960.2661
Peru690.0260
Niger340.3659
Cambodia980.1459
Venezuela30056
South Sudan8054
Sri Lanka1000.0753
Mexico100053
Ecuador980.0553
Myanmar340.0852
Syria13052
Cameroon590.1152
Tunisia1000.1151
Burkina Faso180.2344
Serbia1000.0435
Morocco1000.0232
Namibia850.2428
Dominican Republic770.0227
Tajikistan690.1726
Libya840.0626
Swaziland1000.6125
Guinea1000.1225
Ivory Coast670.0323
Papua New Guinea1000.0823
Benin580.1223
Uzbekistan1000.0222
Macedonia1000.1421
Laos720.1421
Bosnia and Herzegovina1000.0718
East Timor1000.7318
Lesotho570.6517
Burundi820.6317
Kyrgyzstan780.1216
Djibouti990.3614
Thailand100014
Brazil77013
Central African Republic120.4512
Belarus1000.0211
Jamaica730.0611
Chad80.0811
China10009
Botswana680.037
Nicaragua680.046
Paraguay1000.016
Albania1000.026
Azerbaijan520.015
Ireland10004
Comoros1000.274
Angola4403
Sierra Leone1000.053
Mongolia1000.023
Mauritania1000.033
Republic of the Congo410.023
Kazakhstan10002
Japan10002
Vanuatu1000.142
Palau1000.582
Gambia1000.061
Fiji1000.021
Solomon Islands1000.051
Turkmenistan10001

Disclaimer

CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions.


Image credit for social media/web: Martha VanLieshout / USAID