On June 4, President Trump issued a proclamation restricting entry to the United States for nationals of 19 countries. In a factsheet accompanying the announcement, the White House laid out a number of reasons for the travel bans, including that “certain countries exhibit high visa overstay rates, demonstrating a disregard for US immigration laws and increasing burdens on enforcement systems.”
For six countries—Burundi, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Togo, and Turkmenistan—high overstay rates is the only reason provided for a total or partial visa ban. The White House cites the overstay rates—that is, the percentage of visa holders who overstayed their visas —using 2023 data from the DHS.
Indeed, the overstay rates from these countries are high, ranging from 15 percent to 70 percent, depending on the country and type of visa. However, taken together, these six countries accounted for only 1,953 visa overstays in 2023. During that year, 565,154 people from all countries overstayed their American visas. In other words, the countries that the administration singles out account for just 0.3 percent of total overstays.
In justifying its actions, the White House asserts that “the Supreme Court upheld the travel ban, ruling that it ‘is squarely within the scope of Presidential authority’ and noting that it is ‘expressly premised on legitimate purposes.’” This is puzzling; after all, if the true purpose of the proclamation was to reduce the number of people who overstay their visas, you would expect the administration to focus on overstay numbers, rather than percents. As my statistics professor used to say: what’s in your denominator?
Now, of the five countries with the greatest absolute numbers of overstayers (together accounting for over 160,000 of the 565,154 total), two (Haiti and Venezuela) are subject to partial or total bans with reasons cited by the White House that go beyond just overstay rates. But the other three countries that contribute over 100,000 do not even get a mention in the White House announcement. Could it be because they are upper-middle-income and high-income countries, and this is, effectively, a policy targeting lower-income countries?
It does seem that way. Last week, the State Department laid out a new policy to combat overstayers. This policy requires applicants for a B-1 or B-2 (short-term tourism or business) US visa to potentially post a bond of up to $15,000. The policy focuses on two countries: Zambia and Malawi. While Zambia and Malawi have relatively high overstay rates, together they account for 625 B-1/B-2 overstayers in 2023— just 0.2 percent of all global overstayers.
As explained in the Federal Register, the visa bonds are a pilot program, slated to run from August 20, 2025, to August 5, 2026:
“The Department intends to use the results of the Pilot Program to assess the operational feasibility of posting, processing, and discharging visa bonds and to assess the burden such a program places on government agencies, which will inform any future decision concerning the possible use of visa bonds to address visa overstay rates and other security concerns, relative to operational considerations. The operational feasibility of posting, processing, and discharging visa bonds focuses on assessing the burdens such a program places on government agencies and identifying challenges that might arise from the interagency process for implementing visa bonds. While this Pilot Program is primarily designed to study the operational feasibility of implementing visa bonds, data collected during the Pilot may also be used to determine the effectiveness of visa bonds at reducing overstays, evaluate concerns about insufficient identity verification, and the extent to which visa bonds may deter otherwise legitimate B-1 and B-2 visa applicants from traveling to the United States.”
Given that the 2024 GNI per capita for Malawi is $540, and for Zambia it's $1,260, a bond of $15,000 is likely to discourage a large amount of travel to the US, regardless of any intention to overstay.
One final note. The State Department guidance on the visa bonds notes that they will be forfeited when individuals apply for political asylum. Maybe the next step is to amend the inscription on the Statue of Liberty to read “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…for $15,000.”
Thanks to Dany Bahar, Helen Dempster, and Emily Schabacker for comments. All errors are my own.
