France’s Future as a Global Development Player: What the Results of the Legislative Elections Might Mean

The results of the recent French legislative elections signal that significant changes to the nation’s politics could be on their way. But the nature and timing of these changes remain uncertain. France’s global development policy, reaffirmed by the 2021 law on inclusive development and fight against global inequalities, was not a central issue in the election campaign. It is, perhaps, reassuring that it did not emerge as a point of contention. But this could also indicate indifference or lack of deep commitment from the main political parties. Speculating on how these elections might impact France’s global development policy is therefore tentative and even hazardous.

This political upheaval also comes at a time when the concepts of development, official development assistance (ODA), and the architecture of development finance are being challenged. Countries formerly classified as “developing” have evolved along dramatically different paths, and the thematic focus of development has widened to include dimensions of social and environmental sustainability, development dimensions (embodied in the Sustainable Development Goals), as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation. Given France’s historical role in shaping global policies and President Macron’s advocacy for a new global financing pact, the election results will also affect France’s ability to contribute to this broader agenda in the coming months.

Several structural factors provide insight into France’s future commitment to global development. Institutional continuity and broad public support suggest this political gearshift will have a limited short-term impact on development policy. But budgetary constraints and the risk of political deadlock could limit France’s capacity to play an active role in global development, consistent with its previous engagements.

Institutional continuity

The institutional organization of France’s development policy is complex. In 2023, no fewer than 24 budgetary programs across various ministries and administrative structures contributed to the policy. The bulk of bilateral policy, involving transfers to developing countries, is managed within the “aide publique au développement” (ODA) mission, controlled by the ministry of foreign affairs, which provides grants, and the ministry of finance, which provides concessionality resources to subsidize loans. The French Agency for Development (AFD) is the implementing agent. Beyond distributing grants to the poorer countries (especially in sub-Saharan Africa), it acts as a development bank that borrows from international markets and mixes concessionality resources to provide concessional loans to other developing countries whose debt is sustainable. The government provides the political inputs, while the operational strategy does not depend on political appointees but on a dedicated, inventive, and technically competent staff. While political decisions influence budgetary choices and strategic orientations, the AFD’s expertise and local presence also inform these strategic decisions and act as moderators in the face of political fluctuations. Nevertheless, the allocation of aid between multilateral institutions and bilateral policies can shift depending on the political majority.

Public support for development policies

The French public consistently supports the country’s development policy. The AFD regularly surveys public opinion on this matter. The April 2023 barometer, based on a representative sample of 2000 individuals of age 16 and above showed growing interest in global development issues, with 83 percent of respondents expressing some or significant interest, up from 61 percent in 2021. Additionally, a huge 80 percent believed that politics, economics, climate, demography in developing countries over the next 10 to 15 years would impact French living conditions. Part of this understanding is presumably linked to terrorism and to sensitivities around migration. There is a high level of awareness around sustainable development objectives, particularly among the youth, who also indicate that they have a strong desire for international commitment. Three-quarters of respondents support France’s development policy and consider that it is increasingly effective.  

This is comforting—if public opinion guides politics. But the barometer insights contrast with the growing appeal of a political extreme right with increasingly xenophobic and nationalistic policies. A more recent survey, also conducted for the AFD by Harris in April 2024 and covering France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Sweden, somewhat qualifies the 2023 results. It shows support for international solidarity and actions to promote sustainable development, though, in France, such support is smaller than in other countries and seems to have somewhat ebbed over time, possibly due to a higher sensitivity of the French public to immigration-related issues.

Political parties generally reflect such support, though with varying orientations. The extreme right Rassemblement National opposes foreign aid and would condition it strictly to measures to keep migrants at home. Other parties support aid and poverty and inequality reduction, but they differ in focus. Parties leaning toward the left side of the spectrum typically emphasize solidarity, social justice and the environment while those leaning to the right focus on market dynamics and liberalization and may also see development policy as a way to control migrations. The current development policy of the French government, supported by the president’s party, Renaissance, was embodied in the 2021 law, which indicated as priorities the fight against poverty, the promotion of human rights and the protection of global public goods. The law also committed France to raise the level of ODA from 0.51 percent of GNI in 2021 to 0.55 percent in 2022, and to try to reach 0.7 percent in 2025. However, that later deadline was in 2023 postponed to 2030.   

The 2024 elections showed that two-thirds of the electorate rejects the extreme right, and it is reasonable to believe that within the other third, the protest motive has, for some, been more powerful than adherence to extreme right values, or that some of them were deceived by the attempts of the Rassemblement National to hide these values. It seems likely that public support for development policies will continue as long as the costs are acceptable. However, public support does not imply active public mobilization behind the objectives of development cooperation.

Inescapable fiscal pressures

France’s fiscal deficit and public debt have become significant concerns. The outcome is that France has a much-reduced margin of maneuver for fiscal choices and that “good policy” is currently seen by many as one that reduces spending. However, the underlying issue is more about the nature and quality of public spending than about the level of public debt or the fiscal deficit. It is always politically difficult to determine priorities and reallocate spending; even more so in the current situation, with an Assembly in which no majority can be easily shaped. Should wisdom prevail and constructive discussion finally take place, leading to majority views on some policies and programs, it is unlikely that development policy would be currently prioritized as a major issue. Other economic and social concerns will be, rightly or wrongly, perceived as more urgent.

All in all, whether from a lack of perceived urgency or from a decision to address the budget constraint through indiscriminate spending cuts, the current situation is not conducive to an increase in French ODA, and probably even not to a stabilization of the current effort, despite the intention set in the 2021 law. In 2022, French ODA slightly exceeded (0.56 percent) the target of 0.55 percent of GDNI set in the law, but the ODA ratio fell back to 0.50 percent in 2023. In February 2024, the French minister of economics and finance, Bruno Le Maire, announced a first package of €10 billion of overall spending cuts in reaction to the publication of a larger-than-expected deficit ratio of 5.5 percent of GDP, and included a €742 million cut in the aid budget, the largest proportional cut in the list of public expenses.

From deadlock to a new democratic governance?

The political landscape after the June 2024 elections is characterized by a deadlocked National Assembly, divided into three roughly equal blocks: the union of the Left, which was constituted in view of these elections, gained an important number of seats; the presidential majority suffered a huge loss (though less than expected); and the extreme right came only third in terms of seats, but gained substantially. None of these groups can muster a majority to pass their desired measures. The Left and presidential majority are themselves deeply divided. Lamenting about the deadlock (and doing nothing to escape it) has become quite fashionable. However, this situation could also present a unique opportunity, to move from a majority-based governance (in which, since there is a majority, there is no need for debate) to a coalition-based governance, in which majorities emerge through substantive debate on major political priorities. Such a shift would over time allow to build a strong and stable constituency in favor of France’s development policy. At stake is also the chance for France to maintain its global status and contribute to the necessary reform of global governance. However, achieving this will require moving from a culture of invective and insult to one of inclusive dialogue and listening, a challenging but necessary shift to avoid further political polarization, inability to take decisions and an uninspiring form of muddling through, without addressing the major challenges.

Concerns for the future

While it is unlikely that the elections will significantly change the main tenets of France’s development policies in the short term, these results are still a cause for concern. The commitment to development rests on values that are antithetical to the extreme right, which the elections have ominously confirmed the growing appeal of. And this unsettling political equation is hardly unique. Many countries are turning more nationalistic, and far right values are spreading.

The French situation is a symptom of a broader tectonic move that threatens world cooperation, world governance, global prosperity, democracy, and world peace. It is likely, however, that the solution to oppose such a move lies within the countries at least as much as, if not more than, international agreements. Domestic politics drives the day.