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Featuring Richard Bluhm
Maastricht University's School of Governance (MGSoG) and the United Nations University (MERIT) in the Netherlands
With Discussant Laurence Chandy
Global Economy and Development Program and Development Assistance and Governance Initiative, Brookings Institution
Host Charles Kenny
Center for Global Development
How much can poverty be reduced by growth and how much by redistribution? Existing analyses of that question have been limited by inaccurate estimates of current and forecasted poverty rates, based on excessive optimism regarding the impact of growth on poverty in richer countries. Richard Bluhm will discuss a new framework for estimating and projecting poverty rates based on two new papers coauthored with Denis de Crombrugghe and Adam Szirmai.
The twopapers highlight four key findings. First, the new modeling approach reveals that the relationship between average incomes and poverty is considerably weaker in richer regions and stronger in poorer regions than previous studies suggest. Second, the findings imply a much larger role of inequality in driving poverty rates. Third, the projections show that the pace of $1.25-a-day poverty reduction will slow down. Optimistic scenarios suggest a poverty rate of 8–9 percent in 2030, far short of the World Bank’s new target of 3 percent by 2030. Finally, rapid progress of $2-a-day poverty reduction will likely be maintained, with an additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.
On the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings 2019, the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the Bretton Woods Committee (BWC) will co-host this expert panel to discuss the future of the World Bank under its new president, David Malpass. What should top his agenda? What are the most important and urgent issues in the development landscape and what is the role of the World Bank in addressing these challenges? Join us to hear from this panel of global thought leaders offering recommendations for the future of the multilateral system.
How are beliefs about gender differences formed, and how do they affect children’s aspirations and academic performance? In this talk, Alex Eble will discuss recent work (co-authored with Feng Hu of the University of Science and Technology Beijing) on perceived gender gaps in mathematics in Chinese middle schools.
In a recent paper, Kate Ambler and coauthors studied the impact of one-season cash transfers for agricultural investment in Senegal and Malawi, using data from a randomized control trial (RCT) in each country. They found evidence that transfers reduced both the number of decision makers and female decision making in Senegal in the short-run, particularly for measures directly related to agriculture. However, the effects disappeared two years after the transfers. Conversely, the authors find transfers in the Malawi program led to robust transitory increases in these measures, seeing a greater impact related to the number of decision makers in the household persisting after two year period. Join us for the latest CGD Invited Research Forum to discuss these opposing findings on the effects of cash transfers on household decision making.
Indian agriculture remains vulnerable to the vagaries of weather, and the looming threat of climate change may expose this vulnerability further. Using district-level data on temperature, rainfall and crop production, Siddharth Hari’s paper first documents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, declining average precipitation and increase in extreme precipitation events. One key finding is that the impact of temperature and rainfall are felt only in the extreme: when temperatures are much higher, rainfall is significantly lower, and the number of “dry days” greater is than normal. He also finds that these impacts are significantly more adverse in unirrigated areas (and hence rainfed crops) compared to irrigated areas. Can policy makers react to the challenges of climate change and find ways to get “more crop for every drop?"