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This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the president’s party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools.
Originally published in May 2024, this paper was updated in July 2025 after a coding error in the statistical software led to incorrect computation of some year-over-year difference variables. After correcting the code and re-estimating all results, the study’s overall findings and conclusions remain unchanged. The original version of this paper can be viewed here.
The paper was also published in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management.
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CITATION
Bahar, Dany. 2024. The Often Overlooked “Pull” Factor: Border Crossings and Labor Market Tightness in the US. Center for Global Development.DISCLAIMER & PERMISSIONS
CGD's publications reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions. You may use and disseminate CGD's publications under these conditions.
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