Last month ended with two moments of global significance that brought together two related challenges. The International Day of Care and Support, on October 29, was a time to recognize the importance of caregiving. It came shortly after the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings, where several discussions emphasized the urgency of solving the “jobs challenge.” Some 1.2 billion youth are projected to reach working age in emerging markets and developing economies over the next decade, but only 420 million jobs are expected to be available. Caregiving often occurs outside the market economy and isn’t seen as an economic activity, yet it represents millions of potential jobs—caring for children, older people, and people with chronic illnesses or disabilities. Investing in care jobs offers a key solution to the jobs challenge and addresses another critical issue: the global care challenge.
A global care challenge looms alongside the jobs challenge
There is a global shortage of care workers. According to the International Labour Organization, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals would require increasing investments in care services, creating 100 million new care jobs between 2015 and 2030.
What’s driving this global shortage of care workers? As of 2021, an estimated 349 million children lacked access to quality childcare. Most of these children are in lower- and middle-income countries. Additionally, rising life expectancies are increasing the number of older people (aged 65 and above) worldwide. This demographic shift isn’t only happening in high-income countries. As AARP notes: “By 2050, there will be over 2.1 billion older people in the world — more than 22 percent of the world’s population. Moreover, a stunning 80 percent of the world’s 65-plus population will live in lower- and middle-income countries.” Chronic disease burdens are also rising, with conditions like diabetes, cancers, dementia, and post-stroke complications increasing the demand for long-term care, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Together, these factors present a global challenge in securing adequate care.
The jobs challenge and the care challenge are opposite sides of the equation for a prosperous global economy. On one side, we have a shortage of jobs. On the other side, we have a shortage of workers. Expanding the care workforce through paid job opportunities for care workers brings the two sides of the equation together and addresses both challenges.
Care jobs offer a robust solution
The World Bank has identified five key sectors for job creation: infrastructure, agribusiness, healthcare, tourism, and manufacturing. Here are four reasons why investing in care jobs offers a robust solution to the jobs challenge, and a strategically compelling complement to the World Bank’s list of key sectors:
1. Care jobs are AI-resilient
The emergence of artificial intelligence has drastically transformed the world of work. Early evidence from the US shows that the potential for generative AI to displace human workers varies across sectors. While tasks related to data and information processing face the highest risk, care jobs are relatively AI-resilient since they require substantial human interaction. A recent paper tracking employment trends suggests that AI impacts are especially severe for young workers in exposed sectors. Employment has been declining for early-career workers compared to more experienced workers in roles like software development and customer service, but the opposite is true for less-exposed workers like health aides (nursing aides, psychiatric aides, and home health aides), with younger workers being employed at higher rates.
There’s a notable distinction between care jobs and healthcare writ large. Hospitals and the healthcare sector are relatively exposed to AI disruptions because many medical tasks can be automated. Hands-on patient care involving direct human contact represents a subset of tasks that are AI-resilient. Childcare and long-term care are similarly hands-on, limiting their vulnerability to displacement by AI.
2. Care jobs are tariff-resilient
Tariff shocks are another intensifying risk with the potential to wipe out jobs. The Trump administration’s tariff increases have exposed the vulnerability of export-led solutions to the jobs challenge, with countries like Lesotho experiencing substantial job losses due to canceled orders following the threat of tariff increases. While agribusiness and manufacturing jobs are somewhat AI-resilient, they are highly vulnerable to tariff shocks in a way that care jobs are not.
3. Care jobs offer labor mobility opportunities
The care challenge has a global distribution that lends itself to labor mobility. High-income countries are experiencing population aging sooner than lower-income countries are and facing more extreme shortages in care for older people. These care demands present opportunities for care workers to move from lower-income countries to provide care and acquire skills that can later be useful in their origin countries. Beyond contributing to solving the jobs challenge, labor mobility offers the potential for remittances to provide a buffer against future foreign aid cuts. While migrant jobs can be vulnerable to shocks from changes in immigration policies, these risks can be mitigated by intentional efforts to use international migration as a structural transformation policy, with care jobs as a focus area.
4. Care jobs are a tide that lifts all boats
Although most care workers are women, and more women than men report that their caregiving responsibilities limit their labor market participation, care jobs don’t exclusively benefit women. Increasing the quality and availability of care services has positive impacts across the economy—both men and women increase their economic activity (parents, grandparents, and other informal caregivers benefit), older siblings go back to school, and young children have better development. Additionally, care jobs offer direct employment opportunities for both men and women. Getting more men into paid caregiving can raise the sector’s wages and prestige, reduce male unemployment, and improve men’s socio-emotional well-being.
There are innovative public and private models of how to strategically invest in care jobs
If I’ve convinced you that care jobs are a key solution to the jobs challenge, a natural next question is: How can willing stakeholders invest in care jobs? Here are two innovative starting points:
Certify and strengthen the skills of unpaid caregivers
Family caregivers provide a substantial amount of care services, with practical skills that can provide a segue into formal jobs. We've learned from public models like Bogotá’s home assistant program and social enterprises like Kenya’s Benacare that certifying and strengthening the skills of unpaid caregivers through complementary training can be a useful first step in expanding the care workforce.
Build global skill partnerships
We’re already seeing millions of workers moving across countries to provide care and domestic services. There are many cautionary lessons about risks for migrant workers, particularly when labor mobility isn’t channeled through safe and dignified pathways. CGD colleagues have written extensively about the prospects for global skill partnerships to provide benefits to both origin and destination countries, outlining the opportunities available when governments are intentional about creating mutually beneficial partnerships, integrating considerations about training and systems strengthening in origin countries, securing private sector participation, and facilitating migration through safe, legal, and ethical channels.
Conclusion
Care jobs won’t single-handedly address the jobs challenge, but they’re a key part of the solution. They’re also key to solving the global care challenge that is constraining workers and economies. Unless there’s a strong care ecosystem, young people reaching working age will continue to face limits of unpaid caregiving responsibilities. People can’t fully lean into opportunities to take up new jobs in infrastructure, tourism, healthcare, agribusiness, or manufacturing if they are occupied with unpaid care work.
At CGD’s 10th Birdsall House Conference on Gender Equality, coming up on Tuesday, November 18th, we’ll be talking about the jobs challenge and the care challenge, and charting a new course for women and work in a changing global economy. Register now to join us in person or online.
