The Future of Natural Resources and Development: Whither Low and Middle-Income Countries?

This paper discusses the importance of non-renewable resources in the developing world and the expected future trends in the demand and supply of minerals, metals, and hydrocarbon resources. It examines how these trends would potentially influence growth and development trajectories in low- and middle-income countries. The impact will be heterogeneous: some countries will see new opportunities from mineral extraction related to renewable production, but for countries with extreme dependence on oil, gas and coal—predominantly middle-income economies—the outlook does not augur well as the decreasing demand for hydrocarbons in the next decades may mean poorer economic growth and shrinking fiscal revenue.

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