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In timely and incisive analysis, our experts parse the latest development news and devise practical solutions to new and emerging challenges. Our events convene the top thinkers and doers in global development.
University of Maryland
Center for Global Development
Is there a convincing instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of aid and growth? In his new paper, Sebastian Galiani and his coauthors exploit an instrumental variable based on the fact that since 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association (IDA) has been based partly on whether or not a country is below a certain threshold of per capita income.
The paper finds evidence that other donors tend to reinforce rather than compensate for reductions in IDA aid following threshold crossings. Overall, aid as a share of gross national income (GNI) drops about 59 percent on average after countries cross the threshold. By focusing on the 35 countries that have crossed the income threshold from below between 1987 and 2010, they find a positive, statistically significant, and economically sizable effect of aid on growth. They find that a one percentage point increase in the aid to GNI ratio from the sample mean raises annual real per capita growth in gross domestic product by approximately 0.35 percentage points. The analysis shows that the main channel through which aid promotes growth is by increasing physical investment.
*The CIRF series is an academic research seminar that brings some of the world's leading development scholars to discuss their new research and ideas. The presentations are at times technical, but retain a focus on a mixed audience of researchers and policymakers. There’s more about the series here.
Humanitarian relief must involve, and be accountable to, the crisis-affected people it serves.
Versions of this principle can be found in most foundational humanitarian documents, and it features prominently in recent reform commitments including the 2016 Grand Bargain. Yet the power structures that shape international humanitarian response are not driven by, or accountable to, the people that they exist to serve. They are still engaged more as passive recipients of aid than as a force shaping humanitarian priorities. Living up to the aspiration of people-driven humanitarian action will require uncomfortable – but overdue – changes to the humanitarian system’s incentive structures and power dynamics.
Governments and donors are increasingly focused on the use of evidence in evaluating human development programs and setting policy priorities. This master class will provide early career researchers with cutting-edge methodological tools for experimental and quasi-experimental evaluation of early childhood development interventions. The course is intended for current PhD students and recent graduates whose doctoral work is focused on early childhood development, education, development economics, or public policy.
Faced with a deepening financial crisis, the recently elected government of Imran Khan has embarked on an ambitious economic reform program, supported by a $6 billion IMF loan and $32 billion of associated financing. Pakistan has a long history of embarking on such reforms but not of seeing them through.
Join the leaders of Pakistan’s Economic Team to discuss why they believe this time will be different.
The Saving One Million Lives (SOML) program for results (PforR) aims to increase the utilization and quality of high impact reproductive, child health, and nutrition interventions in Nigeria. SOML was originally created in 2012 to address Nigeria’s slow progress on improving health status and health services. Since 2015, the initiative has received assistance from the World Bank through a “cash-on-delivery” (COD) approach in which the disbursement of funds is directly linked to the achievement of specific program results. This PforR funding mechanism by the World Bank uses country systems and processes and gives health managers substantial autonomy in achieving health results. Four years into the SOML PforR’s implementation, join us to explore lessons learned.
Over the last 25 years, Mexico has benefited from robust trade and financial integration with North America and strong domestic macroeconomic and financial stability, although much remains to be done on the socioeconomic front.
Against this backdrop, the economy is currently facing strong domestic and external headwinds. At home, the economy has slowed since last year, with real GDP contracting 0.2% in 1Q2019, reflecting low productivity in Mexico and softer growth in the United States. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has announced protectionist policies, which are not supportive of private investment. From the external side, the lingering uncertainties about Trump’s tariffs on Mexico's imports could have a major negative impact.
How should Mexico deal with these challenges? The Latin American Committee on Macroeconomic and Financial Issues (CLAAF) will discuss central questions on a) the best policy responses to market uncertainties, b) the best way to deal with the immigration flood, which is playing a key role in Trump's new tariff threats, c) what Mexico’s policymakers can learn from the recent experiences in Argentina and Brazil, and d) the most pressing reforms needed to restore investors’ confidence and Mexico's economic growth.
A light breakfast and coffee will be available at 9:30 a.m.
In recent years, Latin American countries have undertaken major fiscal consolidation measures in an effort to reduce their deficits and accumulation of debt. Despite improvements in fiscal position throughout the region, the rate of inequality reduction has slowed, capital spending (in terms of GDP) has fallen to its lowest levels since 2007 and fiscal revenues remain insufficient to finance achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Amid an uncertain macroeconomic context and fiscal consolidation, this slowdown requires a fine-tuning of policy measures. This event launches the new CEPAL Publication Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2019, examining the role of tax policy in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The paper analyses the constraints of domestic resource mobilization caused by fiscal incentives and how these incentives could, instead, be geared towards investment to foster sustainable and inclusive development.
Over the past two decades tremendous progress has been made to improve girls’ access to schooling. Data on learning similarly shows that gender gaps are closing or largely closed. Yet education systems are still failing to meet one important objective: achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment in terms of adult life outcomes. Against the backdrop of improvements in schooling and learning, women still bear the brunt of inequalities in female income, political participation, exposure to gender-based violence and reproductive autonomy. The panel will attempt to answer a key question: how can girls’ education improve adult life outcomes for women?