Why Do Governments Tax or Subsidize Fossil Fuels?

Governments have long faced pressure to address the climate crisis by increasing taxes on fossil fuels, which are the source of more than three-quarters of the world’s anthropogenic carbon pollution. Since fossil fuel taxes and subsidies are hard to measure, it is unclear how much government policies have changed. Using original high-frequency data on gasoline taxes and subsidies in 157 countries, we establish three findings: despite rising alarm about climate change, from 2003 to 2015 there was little net change in fuel taxes and subsidies at a global level; fuel taxes and subsidies appear to be driven by slow-moving economic factors, primarily income and fossil fuel wealth; and reforms, when they occur, are overwhelmingly associated with country-level political conditions that follow no readily-discernible patterns. These patterns are consistent with a model in which fossil fuel taxes are determined by a country’s income and revenue needs, not its environmental commitments.