9:00—10:30 AM ET

COVID-19 Vaccine Predictions Part 2: Estimating the Time Before We Approve Efficacious COVID-19 Vaccines

Explore the interactive tool at


  • Anthony McDonnell, Senior Policy Analyst, Center for Global Development


  • Adrian La Porta, Technical Director, Bryden Wood
  • Melissa Malhame, Vice President, Global Business Development, PharmaJet
  • Prashant Yadav, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development and Professor, Technology and Operations Management, INSEAD
  • Tom Johnston, Senior Consultant, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations


  • Kalipso Chalkidou, Director of Global Health Policy, Center for Global Development and Professor of Practice in Global Health at Imperial College London.


Much of the discussion around society’s ability to return to “normality” after the COVID-19 pandemic has centered on the development of a vaccine. This has led to unprecedented collaboration and investment.

In early October, we released a report looking at possible timelines for when vaccines are likely to be ready for approval and hosted an event that looked at the challenges of finding a vaccine and optimizing the portfolio. However, finding a vaccine for COVID is only the first step in inoculating people. Whichever candidate or candidates are found will need to be manufactured at an unprecedented scale so that the vaccine can be distributed to people across the world.

To help answer questions about the portfolio, and how long it will take to find and manufacture new vaccines, we are launching an online web tool that will allow users to input their assumption of the characteristics of a vaccine that will be effective into our model.

In this event, organized as part of a collaboration with Ariadne Labs, we will launch our web tool, showing users how to use it. We will then discuss the challenges to manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines at scales, our modelling results, and their implications.

If you have questions for our panelists, please submit them to [email protected], tweet @CGDev #CGDTalks, or submit your comments via YouTube.

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